2007 Web Predictions...

December 2006

RSS, Structured Data

- RSS will go mainstream in a big way next year - not only integrated into Microsoft's new Vista OS, but also fully integrated into Yahoo Mail when it comes out of beta (the Ajax version). Plus we expect some of Google's RSS experiments to come into play more in 2007 - especially Google Base, which uses an RSS variant called GData. In addition to all this, new and interesting (if not overly innovative) services will be built on top of RSS - e.g. the Techmeme RSS Ad-delivery.

- Related to the above, structured data will be a big trend next year - see our post on Google's structured data play from September this year. What will be particularly interesting to watch is how microformats, the Web community's open standards for structured data, will fare. At this point, it looks like Google is forging ahead with its own structured data standards - and largely ignoring microformats. Although both Microsoft and Yahoo have shown some support for microformats, is it enough to stop Google?

- Widgets exploded in 2006 but will continue rising in 2007 thanks to blogs and social networks like MySpace. MyBlogLog is an example of what we'll see more of, but also look out for more e-commerce and multimedia widgets.

Enterprise

- Web Office continues to ramp up. Especially watch Google and Microsoft battle it out in this domain. The smaller startups (Zoho, Zimbra, ThinkFree et al) will continue to innovate and there may even be acquisitions by the big Internet companies.

- The consumerization of the enterprise trend will start to infiltrate corporate IT, in the form of web-based office apps and more collaborative systems. Virtual solutions (teams and offices) that deliver high productivity at lesser expenses, will be hugely popular - for example SKY-click. Corporate blogs will continue to proliferate, although there may be more controversy to come in this area (think sensitive information leaked on corporate blogs).

Web Development

- Rich Internet Apps will be a major force in 2007 (a continuation of the Hybrid web/desktop apps theme we focused on this year). In particular watch out for Adobe's Apollo platform, but you can be sure that Microsoft will also be very active in this domain with its Windows Presentation Foundation. Also in the mix will be Laszlo with its open source OpenLaszlo platform. The general trend going on here is that platforms that leverage both the desktop and the Web will be compelling next year, in terms of offering rich functionality that usually can't be found on purely browser-based apps.

- On the other hand, Google in particular will continue to push the boundaries of browser-based apps. Ajax is known to have its limitations, so some people have been wondering what will be next after Ajax? But also 2007 may be the year that rich web apps using vector graphics (VML/SVG)+AJAX make an impact.

- Semantic Web products will come of age in 2007. Make no mistake (to use presidential language), the Semantic web is coming - particularly with the work of companies like RadarNetworks and Metaweb. We think companies like that will come up with the plumbing to help generate RDF based on HTML.

- Amazon Web Services were a surprise hit in 2006 - and expect more big things from Amazon next year, to fill in the stack and to provide the foundation for a Web/Amazon WebServices-based OS. We also think there will be moves toward an Amazon-like web services stack from other players, particularly Google. For example Google may want to catch up with Amazon's S3 - EC2 services. And where Google goes, you can expect Microsoft to go too.

Search and Online Advertising

- Expect some shakeups in the online advertising market next year. AdSense will have some competition, in the form of MSN AdCenter and Yahoo's advertising platform.

- Also due to ongoing issues with (CPC/PPC) online advertising, there's a real need for a better, more robust online ad model - perhaps something more than CPA. So watch out for developments in 2007 along those lines.

- 2007 will be about Search 2.0 and the rise of the vertical search engines. However don't expect Google to lay down and do nothing - they will counter the verticals. Google Code and Health are two early examples of Google's response. Also note that Google is moving towards being a more meaning-based search engine. For instance, when you enter a company name in Google, the first result not only returns the homepage of the company but also some semantic meaning extracted from the website. And the right bar of SearchMash (Google's test search site) shows that Google is planning more features.

Microsoft vs Google

- Microsoft's Windows Live services will gain real momentum next year, thanks to Vista and also Live services going out of beta and usurping their MSN counterparts (e.g. Windows Live Mail taking over Hotmail).

- WebOS /GoogleOS: To counter the Vista and Windows Live threat, Google may come out with some form of GoogleOS. This is contentious, but one theory is that if Vista's default services (Live.com) can put pressure on Google, then we may see a Google optimized Linux .

- In line with this, Open Source Desktops will continue to gain momentum in '07. Red Hat and Novell will bring out new versions. Linux Desktops are getting more fun with 3D effects and KDE4 (Plasma) and AIGLX - Xgl and Beryl - Compiz technologies. But can they compete with new Vista and expected web operating systems?

Browsers

- Browser War II. In 2007 expect the competition between IE7 and FireFox (plus Flock, Opera and Maxthon) to be intense. Perhaps we'll even see a G-Browser? Stranger things have happened.... or will Google continue to utilize Firefox as its cover? The latter is more likely, as Google does not want to seem too distracted with operating systems and browsers; this would be a bad signal for the NASDAQ investors.

- Speaking of browsers, 2007 will see an increase in WebKits. Adobe's Apollo will be WebKit based, enabling developers to ensure Safari compatibility as well as other browsers. We also think the Konqueror browser of Linux/KDE will drop its KHTML engine in favor of WebKit. So expect Safari compatibility to rise sharply in 2007.

Multimedia

- Internet-based TV will ramp up in 2007, thanks to products like Brightcove and whatever Google does with YouTube/Google Video. Also we'll see more of Interactive TV (iTV etc). On this theme, the Venice Project (from the founders of Skype) promises free TV all around the world.

- Mass adoption of IPTV technology in 2007 and Bittorrent will be an important part of the online video landscape too.

- P2P: With Azureus and BitTorrent, P2P got approximately $30M funding for 2007. So 2007 will undoubtedly be a good year for P2P. It will get more accessible and we'll probably see web based P2P interfaces. Bittorrent has already become a major part of most connected software. For instance, DemocracyPlayer - an IPTV client similar to Venice Project - had an embedded bittorrent client. Bittorrent will probably continue to be embedded in many new apps in '07.

- Virtual worlds: SecondLife will become an important platform for marketing, promotion, and of course social networking - as people and businesses figure out different uses for it. Also we think SecondLife will continue its expansion worldwide. Currently you can find Habbo and SecondLife cards in most supermarkets (Wallgreens, CVS) in the US, so this trend should continue in other parts of the world. In short, virtual worlds will become an integral part of the real world in 2007.

- Virtual Money: Paypal showed the way, and we're seeing more of it now - SecondLife LindeX, Microsoft points etc.

Consumer Apps

- The online real estate market will grow rapidly in '07.

- The search for disruptive business models will continue! :-) In other words, free consumer web apps still need to find a business model.

- While social networks dominated 2006, we wonder if the amount of time an average user spends online will start to negatively impact on their social lives in 2007 and lead to a downturn. Could social networks prove to be anti-social? ;-) At the same time, social networks will probably also become more open - and data portability will start to occur, although MySpace will hold out. See also widgets above.

International Web

- International Web will finally start to get its due in mainstream media (or maybe this is wishful thinking). China in particular is a hot market right now, but as Keith Teare observed on R/WW recently, it is still early days and the revenues are not big at this point.

- OLPC: One Laptop Per Child will create good buzz and may increase the adoption of thin-client like computers (internet and web apps dependent) and Linux for the mainstream. See also Web Office above, which may find its true niche in non-traditional markets which can't afford Microsoft Office.

- Broadband continues to grow: For example Fiber Connections in France. There will be similar baby steps towards faster internet all around the world. After all, the broadband revolution created web 2.0, Google and web apps. So it's worth following this trend!

Mobile

- VoIP space will really hot up. Skype and a bunch of new competitors will compete and potentially disrupt the telecoms industry.

- Mobile Web may be the big story of 2007 - certainly in China, Korea and Japan; but perhaps even the US and other 'behind the times' places like New Zealand and Australia. Related to this is that online/offline mobile technologies like Smartpox may become more popular in the West (they already are in Asia).

- Mobile will be a bigger development and advertising platform in '07 (jajah mobile etc).

- Also watch for an emerging Webphone market - for example Apple's rumored iPhone and a GooglePhone.

Courtesy of mobile Web expert Rudy De Waele, here are 10 specific trends for mobile Web in '07:

Flat fees will become more affordable bit by bit.
Thus, more user-generated content will become available to the phone; opening the way for mobile users to start using new web/mobile 2.0 services on their phones, such as podcasting, RSS feeds, more user-generated content to upload and use.
Big Media Youth Networks going mobile - MySpace, YouTube, MTV and many more players will resolutely go mobile; allowing users to upload pictures, videos and create/consume content straight from their mobile phones. And to share with friends (including mobile forwarding functionality).
Mobile search - the big players will start positioning seriously in the mobile market (watch out for deals with carriers/operators and device manufacturers)
Mobile ads - the market is growing at a rapid pace (just watch AdMob's ad views ticker box daily)
QR codes will start to enter retail markets.
Mobile image recognition will pop up in mixed marketing campaigns.
Cell Phone memory card swapping - to exchange music/video files.
Multiple network download hotspots become available in urban zones - enabling 'on the spot' mobile download and internet access possibilities via wi-fi/wimax/bluetooth/nfc/etc.... (all build in or available immediately)
Rise of 'smart client' solutions, for convergence of content and application functionality on mobile devices in general.

Vista Hacked...

December 2006

Pirates work around Vista's activation feature.
Hackers are distributing a file that they say lets users of the corporate version of Microsoft's Windows Vista operating system get around the software's anti−piracy mechanisms. Windows Vista must be "activated," or authorized by Microsoft, before it will work on a particular machine. To simplify the task of activating many copies of Vista, Microsoft offers corporate users special tools, among them Key Management Service (KMS), which allows a company to run a Microsoft−supplied authorization server on its own network and activate Vista without contacting Microsoft for each copy.

The software Microsoft.Windows.Vista.Local.Activation.Server−MelindaGates lets users spoof that KMS process, allowing them to activate copies of the enterprise editions of Vista, its creators say. The hacked download is available online on sites including The Pirate Bay and other file sharing sites.
Source: http://www.infoworld.com/article/06/12/08/HNpiratesworkaroun dvista_1.html

Keeping an I on IT...

December 2006

How to spot insider−attack risks in the IT department.
Nearly two−thirds of the 616 security pros surveyed this year by the Computer Security Institute say insiders account for some portion of the financial losses their organizations experience because of breaches. Insider attacks against IT infrastructure are among the security breaches most feared by both government and corporate security pros, says Eric Shaw, a psychologist and former CIA intelligence officer. The risks can be lessened first by doing background checks on potential IT employees −− something far more companies are doing this year, according to Carnegie Mellon University's CERT.

If an employee is terminated, it's crucial that all system access be revoked immediately. About half of all insider attacks take place between the time an IT employee is dismissed and his or her user privileges are taken away. When it comes to current employees, IT managers must do something they might not have a taste for: Keep an eye out for insubordination, anger over perceived mistreatment, or resistance to sharing responsibility or training colleagues −− all warning signs someone may be capable of system sabotage or data theft. IT managers must be watchful any time someone with access to sensitive systems has a falling out with his or her bosses.
Source:http://www.techweb.com/news/showArticle.jhtmlarticleID=196602853

QuickTime export broken by Flip4Mac

Some users, myself included, are reporting that the 3rd party Flip4Mac plugin Microsoft recently purchased and offered for free seems to break QuickTime Pro's ability to export movie files. This morning I was trying to compress and export to H.264 some AVI files I shot with my Canon digicam over the weekend, but was met with relentless "error -2126" messages.

Some research revealed a few articles and Apple Support threads, like this one, that have found this and various other buggy issues with the WMV plugin, but most of them pointed to this Flip4Mac support topic on the grubby process of uninstalling and/or Flip4Mac. A future release of the plugin promises a true, automated uninstaller option, but for now: if you're having QuickTime issues like this after installing Flip4Mac, try going through their uninstallation process to reclaim the software's abilities.
Source: http://www.tuaw.com
Thanks D.Chartier

The Canon XL H1 High Definition Camcorder

High Def is here...
The Canon XL H1 High Definition Camcorder is a professional 1080i HD camera truly designed for Professional Broadcast, ENG, Documentary or Reality TV production. For Independent Filmmaking, Canon has included extensive Cine controls and the ability to capture at 24 Frame shooting mode.
http://www.bosfcpug.org/beta/images/stories/speakers/doberube/doberube_091405/xlh1side.jpg

The XL H1 is very rugged and solidly constructed with a professional black color theme. The camera features a flexible "open architecture" design, allowing for a variety of custom camera configurations and various applications for those working with High Definition video - Broadcast and Film.

Source:http://www.usa.canon.com/consumer/controller?act=ProductCatIndex1Act&fcategoryid=102
Thanks D.Berube, noisybrain. Productions, LL

China rising...

December 2006

China a major cyberthreat, commission warns.
China is fielding information warfare units and developing anti_satellite capabilities aimed at countering U.S. military technology, according to a U.S. congressional commission. China’s cyberwarfare strategy has switched from a defensive to an offensive posture, with the goal of attacking enemy networks and denying adversaries access to information, said the U.S._China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) in its annual report, released November 16. Chinese strategy focuses on U.S. systems that perform command and control or deliver precision weapons, the report states. China is enhancing its advanced command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities in response to U.S. progress.

China now has mobile command and control centers that use wireless and satellite communications to relay battlefield information. “It’s very clear from the doctoral writings of the [People’s Liberation Army] that they take cyberwarfare as one of the main ways they must be ready to attack the United States,” said USCC Chairman Larry Wortzel in an interview. “Their overall doctrine holds that a modern war in the 21st century involves cyberwarfare, electronic attack and warfare in space.”
Report: http://www.uscc.gov/annual_report/2006/annual_report_full_06
Source: http://www.fcw.com/article96975_12_01_06_Web

What's the WORD???

December 2006

Microsoft issues Word zero_day attack alert.
Microsoft on Tuesday, December 5, warned that an unpatched vulnerability in its Word software program is being used in targeted, zero_day attacks. A security advisory from the company said the flaw can be exploited if a user simply opens a rigged Word document. Affected software versions include Microsoft Word 2000, Microsoft Word 2002, Microsoft Office Word 2003, Microsoft Word Viewer 2003, Microsoft Word 2004 for Mac and Microsoft Word 2004 v. X for Mac. The Microsoft Works 2004, 2005 and 2006 suites are also affected because they include Microsoft Word. There are no pre_patch workarounds available.
Microsoft Security Advisory: http://www.microsoft.com/technet/security/advisory/929433.mspx
Source: http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2068786,00.asp

Spam is back!!!

December 2006
Spam doubles, finding new ways to deliver itself.
Spam is back __ in e_mail in_boxes and on everyone's minds. In the last six months, the problem has gotten measurably worse. Worldwide spam volumes have doubled from last year, according to IronPort Systems, a spam_filtering firm, and unsolicited junk mail now accounts for more than nine of every 10 e_mail messages sent over the Internet. Much of that flood is made up of a nettlesome new breed of junk e_mail called image spam, in which the words of the advertisement are part of a picture, often fooling traditional spam detectors that look for telltale phrases. Image spam increased fourfold from last year and now represents 25 percent to 45 percent of all junk e_mail, depending on the day, IronPort says. Antispam firms spotted the skyrocketing amount of image spam this summer. The filtering companies adopted an approach called optical character recognition, which scans the images in an e_mail and tries to recognize any letters or words. Spammers responded in turn by littering their images with speckles, polka dots and background bouquets of color, which mean nothing to human eyes but trip up the computer scanners.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/06/technology/06spam.html?

The Courts have spoken...

December 2006
California court rules on Web defamation.
The California Supreme Court has ruled that Internet service providers and bloggers cannot be sued for third_party comments posted on their sites. In the case of Barrett versus Rosenthal the court found that only the originator of the content could be sued, but that third parties who repost the material should be immune from prosecution. The ruling has profound implications for the future of Internet content. "We acknowledge that recognizing broad immunity for defamatory republications on the Internet has some troubling consequences," said the court. "Until Congress chooses to revise the settled law in this area, however, plaintiffs who contend they were defamed in an Internet posting may only seek recovery from the original source of the statement."
Source:http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2169219
/california_court_r ules_web

Firefox, IE vulnerable to fake login pages...

December 2006

Mozilla's Firefox 2 and Microsoft's Internet Explorer 7 are vulnerable to a flaw that could allow attackers to steal passwords. Dubbed a reverse cross_site request, or RCSR, vulnerability by its discoverer, Robert Chapin, the flaw lets hackers compromise users' passwords and usernames by presenting them with a fake login form. Firefox Password Manager will automatically enter any saved passwords and usernames into the form. The data is then automatically sent to an attacker's computer without the user's knowledge, according to the Chapin Information Services site. An exploit for this flaw has already been seen on social_networking site MySpace.com, and it could affect anyone using a blog or forum that allows user_generated HTML code to be added, according to Chapin.

According to Chapin, an RCSR attack is much more likely to succeed than a cross_site scripting attack because neither Internet Explorer nor Firefox is designed to check the destination of form data before the user submits them. The browser doesn't sound an alarm because the exploit is conducted at the trusted Website.
Source:http://news.com.com/Firefox%2C+IE+vulnerable+to+fake+login+pages
/2100_1002_3_6137844.html

Government Accountability...

December 2006
Government Accountability Office — Telecommunications:
FCC Needs to Improve Its Ability to Monitor and Determine the Extent of Competition in Dedicated Access Services (Report).
Government agencies and businesses that require significant capacity to meet voice and data needs depend on dedicated access services. This segment of the telecommunications market generated about $16 billion in revenues for the major incumbent telecommunications firms in 2005. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has historically regulated dedicated access prices. With the Telecommunications Act of 1996, FCC reformed its rules to rely on competition to bring about cost_based pricing. Starting in 2001, FCC granted pricing flexibility on the basis of a proxy measure of competition. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) examined (1) the extent that alternatives are available in areas where FCC granted pricing flexibility, (2) how prices have changed since the granting of pricing flexibility, and the effect on government agencies, and (3) how FCC monitors competition. GAO’s work included analyzing data on competitive alternatives, list prices, and average revenue, and interviewing FCC officials and industry representatives. GAO recommends that FCC better define effective competition, and consider additional data to measure and monitor competition. FCC disagreed that they need to better define competition and collect additional data. GAO maintains that additional data collection is necessary for FCC to better fulfill its regulatory responsibilities.
Highlights: http://www.gao.gov/highlights/d0780high.pdf
Source: http://www.gao.gov/cgi_bin/getrpt?GAO_07_80

Myspace has Worms...

December 2006

Exploit in QuickTime file infecting social site profile pages.

A malicious QuickTime movie file is spreading across social networking site MySpace, embedding itself in the user profile pages of infected victims and changing links to point to phishing sites.

The worm, variously dubbed JS/Quickspace or JS/Qspace, uses JavaScript capabilities built into Apple's QuickTime player, together with the design of the MySpace site, to spread when the movie is opened - often merely by visiting a user page carrying the file. A QuickTime function allows JavaScript to be run from a remote site which, along with embedding the movie, places faked links and navigation bars on profile pages, leading to spoofed MySpace login pages hosted remotely. These are used to gather MySpace logins, which are then defaced with the doctored links and the malicious movie file, and used to spread link spam to contacts on the site, spreading the infection or pushing adware.

Blog entries analysing the problem can be found at F-Secure, McAfee, or Spywareguide.com. Technical details of the worm are also available from Symantec or Trend Micro.
Soource: http://www.virusbtn.com/news/virus_news/2006/12_05.xml